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Logistic model on 360 NSE mainboard IPOs listed 03 Feb 2017 to 08 Sept 2026, using only what is known by the last bidding day — QIB, NII and retail subscription, issue size, recent listing performance and the market regime. Expected gain is the median of the demand bucket, never a regression. Validated walk-forward: AUC 0.79 for a positive listing, 0.82 for +10%, Brier 0.167 against 0.221 for the base rate (267 out-of-sample issues).