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Logistic model on 441 NSE Emerge IPOs listed 02 Jan 2023 to 11 Sept 2026, using only what is known by the last bidding day — total subscription, the QIB and retail share of bids, issue size, recent listing performance and the market regime. Expected gain is the median of the demand bucket, never a regression. Validated walk-forward: AUC 0.66 for a positive listing, 0.75 for +10%, Brier 0.174 against 0.212 for the base rate (350 out-of-sample issues).